Nintendo Switch 2: Analyst Forecasts Strong US Sales in 2025

Gaming analyst Mat Piscatella projects robust US sales for the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2, estimating approximately 4.3 million units sold in 2025, contingent on a first-half launch. This prediction echoes the original Switch's impressive 4.8 million unit sales by the end of 2017, a figure that exceeded Nintendo's initial projections. The anticipation surrounding the Switch 2 is palpable, frequently trending on social media. However, translating this buzz into substantial sales hinges on several critical factors.

Piscatella's forecast suggests the Switch 2 will capture roughly one-third of the US console market in 2025 (excluding handheld PCs). He acknowledges potential supply chain challenges, mirroring the launch difficulties faced by the original Switch and the PlayStation 5. Whether Nintendo has proactively addressed these concerns through strategic stockpiling remains to be seen.

Despite the positive outlook for Switch 2 sales, Piscatella anticipates the PlayStation 5 retaining its position as the leading console in the US market. While the Switch 2's considerable hype is a boon, the PS5's anticipated game lineup, including the highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto 6, poses stiff competition. Ultimately, the Switch 2's success will depend heavily on the console's hardware capabilities and the appeal of its launch titles. The timing of its release will also play a significant role, with a pre-summer launch potentially capitalizing on key holiday periods.

The analyst's prediction, shared on social media, highlights the considerable interest in Nintendo's next-generation console. However, the ultimate market share will depend on a multitude of factors beyond initial hype.

"Assuming a 1H launch, I have Nintendo's next hardware device selling 4.3 million units in the US in 2025, accounting for approximately 1/3rd of all video game console hardware units sold in the year (excluding PC Portables)." — Mat Piscatella (@matpiscatella.bsky.social) January 8, 2025

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