U.S. gamers have been on a wild ride this week, starting with the much-anticipated full reveal of the Nintendo Switch 2, followed by widespread disappointment over its $450 price tag and the $80 price for Mario Kart Tour. The roller coaster continued as Nintendo announced a delay in pre-orders due to the sudden imposition of sweeping tariffs by the Trump Administration, affecting nearly every nation globally.

We've explored elsewhere the reasons behind the high cost of the Nintendo Switch 2 and the potential impact of these tariffs on the gaming industry. The pressing question now is, what will Nintendo do? Will the price of the Nintendo Switch 2 rise when pre-orders finally open?

Typically, when faced with questions about the future of video games, I consult a panel of expert industry analysts. While they can't predict the future with certainty, they usually offer a consensus based on solid evidence and data. I've already done this twice this week. However, this time, every analyst I spoke to was effectively stumped. Their responses were filled with caveats, emphasizing the unprecedented chaos of the current situation. No one can accurately predict what Nintendo, the Trump Administration, or any other stakeholders will do in the coming days, weeks, or months.

With this in mind, here's what the analysts had to say:

Sky-High Switch

The panel was divided. Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, believes Nintendo will likely raise prices due to the delay in pre-orders. He initially thought it was too late for a price hike after the initial announcement, but the current situation has changed his perspective. "It is very difficult to predict, but Nintendo will likely take a few days to run simulations and then announce hikes, not only for the system itself but also for games and accessories," he said. "I hope I am wrong, but if sustained, these sky-high tariffs leave them no choice. Would you be surprised now to see Switch 2 hit US$500 for the base model? I wouldn't."

Toto also questioned Nintendo's timing, wondering why they didn't wait for the U.S. to resolve the tariff issues before setting the price. Mat Piscatella, senior analyst at Circana, echoed Toto's sentiments, noting the unprecedented nature of the tariffs. He believes that the tariffs were higher than anticipated, forcing businesses to reevaluate their pricing strategies. "Every reasonable and responsible business that relies on international supply chains will be reevaluating its US consumer pricing at this point. They have to," Piscatella said.

Manu Rosier, director of market analysis at Newzoo, predicts an increase in hardware prices but suggests that software might not be as affected due to the growing dominance of digital distribution. "While physical versions might be subject to tariffs, the growing dominance and lower cost of digital distribution would likely limit any broader effect," he said. However, he believes that if a substantial tariff were introduced, companies like Nintendo would pass the additional cost onto consumers rather than absorb it themselves.

Holding the Line

On the other side of the debate, Joost van Dreunen, NYU Stern professor and author of SuperJoost Playlist, believes that Nintendo will try to maintain the announced price of $449.99. He suggests that the company has already factored in potential tariff volatility into its pricing strategy. "I believe the volatility from the Trump tariffs was already considered in the Switch 2's $449.99 pricing," he said. "Given the first Trump administration's impact, Nintendo, like other manufacturers, has since restructured its supply chain to mitigate such geopolitical risks."

Van Dreunen acknowledges the uncertainty caused by the tariffs, particularly those affecting Vietnam, but believes Nintendo will strive to absorb or offset additional costs. Piers Harding-Rolls, games researcher at Ampere Analysis, agrees, warning of potential consumer backlash if Nintendo raises prices further. "The extent of the tariffs and its impact on Vietnamese exports are really bad news for Nintendo," he says. "The company is now in between a rock and a hard place, having already announced the launch price."

Harding-Rolls suggests that Nintendo might hold off on price changes until 2026 at the earliest, hoping for a resolution to the tariff situation. "Nintendo will not want to change the price having announced it, but I think everything is on the table now," he said. "If the pricing does change, it will impact the brand and the US consumer’s view of the product at launch."

Living in Unhinged Times

Rhys Elliott, games analyst at Alinea Analytics, predicts higher prices for both Nintendo hardware and software due to the tariffs. He also pointed out Nintendo's strategy of offering cheaper digital editions in certain markets to encourage digital purchases. "It seems the lower prices in other markets were to nudge Switch 2 buyers to digital, as I mentioned my comments to IGN about Mario Kart World’s pricing," Elliott said.

Elliott painted a grim picture of the broader impact of the tariffs on the gaming industry, aligning with warnings from the Entertainment Software Association. He believes that the tariffs will lead to a "weaker, poorer nation," with consumers ultimately bearing the cost. "Some manufacturers – Nintendo included – have been shifting their manufacturing to non-tariff-impacted markets," Elliott said. "And even if companies can afford to switch up their supply chains, who knows which markets will get tariffs next."

Elliott criticized the tariffs as detrimental to consumers and the gaming industry, arguing that they contradict core economic principles. "These extreme tariffs will also be bad for consumers in the US but are positive for the US administration’s populist façade," he said. "Policies that lead to higher prices for everyday people amid a cost-of-living crisis are deplorable. They're bad for gamers and the games business."

Nintendo Switch 2 System and Accessories Gallery

91 Images